The world is falling behind on targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, a new analysis finds.
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However, the Commonwealth Bank study also found we are "on the cusp" of stabilising the amount of carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere.
The stock of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is continuing to build and is approaching 425 parts per million as big emitters including China and India increase their output of the gas, particularly from electricity generation, even while electricity emissions from Europe and the United States are decreasing.
Commonwealth Bank's head of international and sustainable economics, Joseph Capurso, said the world "may be on the cusp of stabilising emissions of CO2", with cumulated emissions in June this year just 0.3 per cent higher than they were 12 months earlier - a significant improvement on the 1.3 per cent increase recorded in the year to June 2022.
![Global carbon dioxide emissions have almost stabilised but the world is still falling short of what is needed to reach net zero by 2050. Picture by Sitthixay Ditthavong Global carbon dioxide emissions have almost stabilised but the world is still falling short of what is needed to reach net zero by 2050. Picture by Sitthixay Ditthavong](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/202296158/b362fec1-f300-43c0-8e87-66e955c0e9f2.jpg/r0_403_5338_3416_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
But Mr Capurso warned this was not enough.
"Stabilising emissions will not prevent the stock of CO2 from increasing. The climate objective is to reduce emissions, not stabilise [them]," he said.
Thew warning follows the release of figures showing Australia's carbon emissions continue to grow, reaching 467 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in the year to June, an annual increase of 0.9 per cent.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said the Quarterly National Greenhouse Gas Inventory report showed renewables were "playing a bigger role in the Australia's energy mix than ever before".
According to the report, renewables accounted for 40 per cent of electricity generated across the national market in the year to June.
The influx of renewables contributed to a 4 per cent decline in emissions from electricity in the year to March, but those from agriculture and transport are continuing to grow strongly, up by 3.3 per and 6.4 per cent, respectively, over the same period.
Critics including the Guardian's Greg Jericho argue the cut in emissions from electricity have been cancelled out by increases in other sectors and the nation is off-track on its target to achieve net zero by 2050.
Mr Capurso said emissions from most of the big economies have been trending lowers "but the reductions achieved are much less than needed to meet commitments for 2030".
"The bottom line [is that] emissions of CO2 continue to increase, albeit modestly, in contrast to the aim for large, sustained decreases," he said.
Investment in sustainable energy, including in the manufacture of equipment needed to generate and use renewable power, is growing quickly and far exceeds the amount being invested in fossil fuels.
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According to the International Energy Agency, spending on sustainable energy assets will reach $2.6 trillion this year and it expects the world to manufacture enough solar panels to "comfortably exceed" projected needs in 2030 under the net zero by 2050 scenario. The agency also thinks future manufacturing capacity will be enough to meet global battery needs by the end of the decade.
But Mr Capurso warned there remained significant gaps in the manufacture of electrolysers and reverse-cycle air conditioners and the IEA outlook did not allow for the fact that a high proportion of announced projects do not proceed to completion.
"There is not likely to be enough addition to global manufacturing capacity to meet net zero commitment for 2030," he said.