As macabre as it sounds, inside the National Situation Room deep in the concrete bowels of the federal police's Edmund Barton Building, preparations are being set for the next big, ugly disaster.
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It took a compound collective of recent disasters, death and misery, and hundreds of millions of dollars in damage from floods, fire and even mouse plagues to finally set in motion the wheels of change in national disaster coordination.
And the National Situation Room is where the levers will be pulled when it next happens.
For years, Australia's disaster planners always thought they had the bases well-covered. There were lots of templates drawn up, plans made, and "frameworks" discussed.
![National emergency management coordinator-general Brendan Moon says "we're prepared, should it happen". Picture by Keegan Carroll National emergency management coordinator-general Brendan Moon says "we're prepared, should it happen". Picture by Keegan Carroll](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/ZBtA3uhzm786CWHKXPpjK4/09ef3960-b8b1-4db5-a094-9d18dac791f2.jpg/r0_256_5000_3334_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
But then came the Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20 spread across five states and territories, and the huge tug-o-war for firefighting resources.
Embarrassing situations emerged where firefighting helicopters sat on the tarmac at Fairbairn "just in case", while the NSW South Coast burned.
Those enormous wildfires rolled into a La Nina weather pattern, bringing extensive flooding across eastern Australia and then, inexplicably, was rounded up by the arrival of the COVID pandemic, bringing an unprecedented shutdown of state borders. So resolute was this action that Western Australia may well have been on another continent.
We're not saying this is going to happen, but we're prepared should it happen.
- Brendan Moon, National Emergency Management Agency coordinator general
Over the past four years it was estimated there have been 1476 disaster declarations across the country affecting 435 local government areas and resulting in 74 deaths. The total economic cost doesn't bear thinking about.
But the fledgling National Emergency Management Agency, founded just a year ago in the wake of all this awfulness, wants to convince the public that come what may - a hot, dry summer of bushfires appears the first likely cross-border scenario - it will be ready.
"The system is already there but ... this is all about refining and fine tuning to deal with the hazards that are potential," NEMA's coordinator general Brendan Moon said.
"We're not saying this is going to happen, but we're prepared should it happen."
![Senior climatologist Agata Imielska warns of a hot dry summer ahead. Picture by Keegan Carroll Senior climatologist Agata Imielska warns of a hot dry summer ahead. Picture by Keegan Carroll](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/ZBtA3uhzm786CWHKXPpjK4/7e9ef97f-94c4-48af-91a9-41858760ef81.jpg/r0_244_5000_3066_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
After lengthy speculation over a hot, dry spring, the Bureau of Meteorology finally relented this week and declared two significant weather events: the beginning of a new El Nino pattern and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Together, these two events are the key drivers bringing a return to the cumulative conditions which triggered disasters like the Black Summer. Both will be strong weather influencers right through to the end of summer.
Effects on the ACT won't be extreme as elsewhere, according to the BOM, with nasty thunderstorms and curiously, some "dry" frosts. Up north, there will be fewer cyclones, but those that do arrive will be bigger, and hit harder.
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Already - and it's not yet summer - the south-east has had a sampler of the major trickledown effects of just a modest stage one heatwave warning. On Tuesday, 20 schools on the NSW South Coast were ordered shut by the NSW Department of Education in response to a catastrophic heat warning.
![The National Situation Room is under AFP HQ in Barton. Picture by Peter Brewer The National Situation Room is under AFP HQ in Barton. Picture by Peter Brewer](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/ZBtA3uhzm786CWHKXPpjK4/63dbc89a-5f37-4fa0-9c68-b6a4d26677b0.jpg/r108_376_3773_2508_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
"We are going to see a return to hotter, drier conditions," the BOM's manager of national operations support, Agata Imielska, said with masterful understatement.
Early next week, NEMA will "stress test" its coordination arrangements in Canberra with an exercise, bringing together a raft of first responders, not-for-profit organisations and even charities - all which have a disaster support role - to challenge responses to a series of "cascading" major events.