In late September I attended a Global Counter Terror and Serious and Organised Crime Summit in London. In relation to terrorism, it was assessed that the threat of Islamist terrorism peaked several years ago, and we are now into a new era where sophisticated attacks by Islamist terrorist groups on home soil are much less likely - but, at the same time, internet-inspired lone actor attacks are probably more likely.
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Lone actor attacks inspired by Islamic State propaganda - using knives or vehicles as weapons - tend to cause few casualties, but if the perpetrator has access to weapons or explosives there is the potential for causing mass casualties. Sometimes a right wing extremist is responsible for this type of deadly lone actor attack. A local example was the attack in Christchurch, New Zealand by 28-year-old Australian Brenton Harrison Tarrant that killed 51 people and injured 40.
Lone actors are a much more difficult security intelligence target, and their attacks are much harder to prevent.
The British government's view is that the threat from terrorism is enduring and evolving. Despite a prevalence of unsophisticated attacks in the UK, the UK sees the terrorism threat as becoming more diverse, dynamic and complex. It now comprises: a domestic terrorist threat that is less predictable, and harder to detect and investigate; a persistent and evolving threat from Islamist terrorist groups abroad, and; an environment where accelerating advances in technology pose an additional threat.
![Lone actors are a much more difficult security intelligence target. Picture Shutterstock Lone actors are a much more difficult security intelligence target. Picture Shutterstock](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/8WgcxeQ6swJGymJT6BMGEL/2c55271f-de97-441c-8401-8f975b558b75.jpg/r0_687_6720_4480_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
The remainder of the UK domestic terrorist threat is driven almost exclusively by extreme right-wing terrorism. This category of terrorism has accounted for approximately 22 per cent of terrorist attacks since 2018 and about a quarter of MI5's caseload, while 28 per cent of those in custody for terrorism-related offences are extreme right-wing terrorists.
The threat from extreme right-wing terrorism in Western countries is increasingly a transnational issue in terms of radicalising influence, inspiration, and communication. Unlike Islamist terrorist groups, extreme right-wing terrorists are not typically organised into formal groups with leadership hierarchies and territorial ambitions. Instead, they consist of informal online communities that facilitate international links. Past successful lone actor attacks, like Tarrant's, inspire participants to conduct similar attacks.
Extreme right-wing ideology is also being exploited by hostile actors such as Russia, which is seeking to promote divisive and polarising narratives in the West, and that activity is likely to increase in the future.
Left wing, anarchist and single-issue terrorism currently represents a significantly smaller terrorism threat than Islamist terrorism or extreme right-wing terrorism. It is not currently present in the UK on any significant scale (although there has been some activity that has met a terrorist threshold in recent years, and MI5 investigations continue into such cases). The majority of related activity in the UK has consisted of lawful protest. When it has involved violence, it has resulted in charges relating to public order, rather than terrorism.
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An additional national security problem in Western countries is state terrorism perpetrated by several countries. Some nation states regard political activists operating abroad and living in Western countries as dangerous because they can propagandise through the internet and bypass state-controlled media to access target audiences.
Russia is the most active politically motivated assassinator of "enemies of the state", and it now seems that India has taken that step with the killing of Sikh independence activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada in June. States engaging in targeted killings may consider it a legitimate option given the US's use of drones to kill those abroad whom it deems to pose an active terrorism threat to US security interests.
Most of the UK's concerns are relevant to Australia's situation and prospects. The UK currently has its terrorism threat at "Substantial" - the middle level of five levels. Australia has it one level lower at "Possible" - the second lowest of five levels.
We have been fortunate not to have had a mass casualty domestic terrorist incident so far, but of course that is no reason to be complacent. Had the Islamic State inspired plot to plant a bomb on an Etihad Airways flight departing Sydney on July 15, 2017 been successful, we could have been looking at hundreds of Australian deaths.
While we have not had a mass casualty incident in Australia, we have been less fortunate abroad, with around 135 Australians having been killed overseas in terrorist attacks, including 95 in Indonesia.
That we have not had a mass casualty terrorist incident in Australia so far has been down to good security intelligence, effective counterterrorism measures, being geographically less accessible than most Western countries, not having many disaffected young people, limited public access to firearms and explosive precursors - and a healthy slice of good luck.
- Clive Williams is a visiting fellow at the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.