Nicholas Stuart | Israel will not find resolution in devastating retaliation on Palestine, Hamas

An attack that was never meant to happen succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of its authors.

It's both provoked a desperate response from Israel and, far more seriously, utterly derailed the current peace process.

And why? Well, normally when one side goes to war its to gain some advantage from negotiations. This time, however, it appears as if the objective is to prevent them completely.

Just 48 hours ago, and after exhaustive negotiations, it was beginning to look as if Israel and Saudi Arabia might finally be prepared to sit down at the same table and sign some sort of treaty early next year.

As far as most of the nations in the Middle East are concerned this is good. Everyone is aware the continuing stalemate over Israel's very existence consumes way too many intellectual resources and efforts for no apparent result, and many of the players are desperate for the situation to be resolved.

Many, but not all. As the secret negotiations between Riyadh and Jerusalem progressed, two groups were becoming increasingly disenfranchised.

Hamas, the fundamentalist Palestinian group that controls the Gaza strip, was being dealt out as the Saudi's moved towards negotiations with the Israelis.

This faction of the Palestinian authority is backed by Iran. The regime in Tehran is equally ideological and also effectively pursuing a long running proxy conflict with Riyadh. Both groups desperately wanted to throw a spanner in the works of any peace efforts - particularly given the current political discord within Israel.

Striking deep within the homeland was the obvious choice.

This also explains why there was no forewarning of the attack. The coming assaults needed to be hidden not only from the Israelis, but also from the broader Arab "alliance. This meant there was no "chatter" to be intercepted before the violence was unleashed: surprise was complete.

This has had the effect of increasing the effect of the attacks. The shock of the violence doesn't add to the chances of compromise or negotiations.

Exactly 50 years and one day ago, another sudden assault against Israel saw Arab armoured spearheads striking deep into the occupied territories. It took three days of successive defeats before the Israeli forces turned the tide of the war and swept the Arab forces back. Heavy and bitter fighting then was halted by a brief and unsuccessful cease-fire.

When the war re-commenced the Israeli forces finally managed to win the operational battle and pushed towards Cairo. But then they stopped while a peace deal was brokered by the superpowers.

The 1973 war made one thing vividly clear: continuing the fighting was pointless because no side would ever win. The Israeli state was not going to be extinguished, but nor could any of its Arab neighbours be permanently defeated.

The result was the beginning of the peace process that resulted in the Camp David Accord less than five years later. What had brought both sides together was a recognition that war would not and could not, solve the conflict. That's still true.

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Unfortunately assassinations of Israeli and Egyptian politicians saw the goodwill of those accords dissolve and hardliners came to power on both sides. The years since have seen some - but not all - of the region's nation states re-focus their attention away from ideological conflict and towards economic development. Along with this has come a willingness to broker deals.

Everywhere apart from Gaza.

While Fatah is the political party in charge of the West Bank, Hamas runs Gaza. This has become a backward, devastated area where children - and young men - have no future.

This is why the coming devastating Israeli retaliation will have no lasting effect. It will, yes, make many feel better to see the falling buildings and see the terrorists dying.

Alongside this, however, will be the sight of Israeli hostages paying with their lives for the failure of of their state to find a way of living with the Palestinians.

The Israeli military operations will be like mowing the grass: the tops of the terrorist groupings might suffer, but the roots of their operations will remain. Punishment is no solution. Resolution will only come when a way can be found for everyone to benefit from peace.

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