Chris Hipkins has conceded the New Zealand election, won by the centre-right National opposition in a huge lurch to the right.
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"It's a bloodbath," National pollster David Farrar told AAP, looking at results with 25 per cent of votes counted.
With 50 per cent of the preliminary vote counted, National was sitting on 41.2 per cent, with Labour on 26 per cent.
Chris Luxon, a first-term MP and former Air New Zealand chief executive, will become the country's prime minister.
What remains in the balance is the make-up of National's coalition - and the scale of Labour's devastation.
Mr Hipkins told supporters in Wellington that despite the party's biggest-ever grassroots campaign, "unfortunately the results tonight show that wasn't enough".
"Earlier this evening I called Christopher Luxon to congratulate him on National's results," he said.
"Labour is not in a position to form another government."
Polls in the lead-up to election day suggested National would win the contest but would need support from two minor parties - ACT and New Zealand First - to govern.
Results so far suggest National might only need its preferred partner, right-wing libertarian party ACT, which sits on 9.2 per cent.
That could leave Winston Peters, the wily 78-year-old populist, out in the cold of opposition despite NZ First sitting on 6.0 per cent of the vote, and on track to return to parliament.
Mr Peters said the party had "done the impossible".
"When we first said a few years ago that we were going to make a comeback they laughed at us," he said in Russell.
"Well, they're not laughing now are they?"
Labour's party vote has crashed from a record 50 per cent in 2020, with the party set to lose seats it has held for generations.
National candidate Melissa Lee leads in Mt Albert - an inner Auckland electorate held by Jacinda Ardern and Helen Clark and by Labour since 1946.
The Greens are on track to improve their vote, sitting on 10.4 per cent, but are bound for opposition given the collapse of the overall left vote.
The Maori Party is on 2.5 per cent, leading in four of the Maori electorates and on track to double its parliamentary representation.
While it was early in the night, Mr Farrar and others said the gulf in support between the right and left made a change of government certain.
With 50 per cent of the vote counted, the combined right bloc was sitting on 57.4 per cent, with the left on 38.9 per cent.
Voters have rejected Labour's campaign for a third term under new leader Mr Hipkins, who succeeded Ms Ardern in January.
Showing the scale of their wipe-out, the party leads in just 16 electorates, with senior ministers Nanaia Mahuta, Damien O'Connor and Kieran McAnulty trailing.
"It's a blue-nami," broadcaster Paddy Gower declared.
The six-week election campaign - dubbed the battle of the Chrises - has been a heavily negative contest, with National attacking Labour's record and Labour attacking National's policy prescriptions.
NEW ZEALAND ELECTION - PRELIMINARY RESULTS AFTER 50 PER CENT VOTE COUNTED
National - 41.2 per cent (polled 25.6 per cent in 2020) - likely 52 MPs
Labour - 26.0 per cent (polled 50 per cent in 2020) - likely 32 MPs
Greens - 10.4 per cent (polled 7.9 per cent in 2020) - likely 13 MPs
ACT - 9.2 per cent (polled 7.6 per cent in 2020) - likely 12 MPs
NZ First - 6.1 per cent (polled 2.5 per cent in 2020) - likely 8 MPs
Maori Party - 2.5 per cent (polled 1.1 per cent in 2020) - likely 4 MPs
Australian Associated Press
