Rosehill form: The best bets for the last day of the Sydney carnival

Dangers: 6. First Light is on the quick back up having run third to Pashmerga last Saturday. He was suited by the speed and ran into it like the winner only to peak on his run late. His conviction remains his inability to put a field away. His last win was 2.5 years ago. A run of wide draws haven't helped 2. Unanimous this preparation. He was tacking on okay late at Randwick last start. 9. Rise To It is in winning form having won three of his past four, albeit in a Goulburn maiden and two Hawkesbury BM64 and BM68's. Not sure that justifies being favourite in Saturday company.

How to play it: Touristic to win

6. Speycaster was 47 weeks between runs prior to making his first appearance for Chris Waller. The stayer needed his first three runs in Melbourne to build a fitness base. Since then he has improved sharply. The import outstayed his stablemate at Hawkesbury in Class 1 company over 2000m before he ran home into second at the Kensington track. He was very firm in the market there as the $2.70 favourite. If not for 5. Father's Day suddenly jumping out of the ground he wins and wins comfortably. There was 1.5L back to third. At least the lightly-raced five-year-old still has some upside with just 12 starts to his name. Hard to be confident given the make up of the field but he's the horse to beat.

Dangers: Can Father's Day repeat what he did two weeks ago? Rachel King took him straight to the front and he just kept on running. Leaders have been flattered at Kensington recently. Apparently working over jumps did the trick in switching him back on. 7. Lady Redwood was four weeks between runs and back in trip at Gosford last start. The ride won the race but she was brave having made a sustained run from the back. Well placed back out to 2400m. 1. Caboche had his chance at Rosehill last Saturday. Nash Rawiller looks a significant booking. 4. Queenmaker comes through that same race but is unproven at 2400m.

How to play it: Speycaster to win

1. Miss Hellfire's first up record is a little deceptive. Last preparation she was beaten a length first up over 1300m in a deep race at Warwick Farm. The campaign prior to that she ran fifth in the Listed Rosebud against the colts. Like what she did last time in, winning once and running another four minors. Interestingly, she has only had the one trial ahead of her return. In the past she has had two. However, she couldn't have been any more impressive in that trial, matching motors with I'mintowin. That form reference reads well now. They cleared out from third. Drawn barrier 1, Jett Stanley should be able to hold the back the likely leader 2. Dollar Magic. A clean getaway is make or break.

Dangers: Dollar Magic won't be easy to get past. She was just denied in a similar race to this over the Randwick 1200m two weeks ago. Comes back to her own sex and tackles the leader friendly Rosehill 1100. At her top now tackling this fourth up. 3. Spirit Queen charged home into second at the midweeks first up. The former Queenslander was hard to line up there but there's depth to her Doomben and Eagle Farm form. Well set up to potentially go one better, even if there if more depth here. 5. Eagle Nest has owned the race from in front in her two wins this campaign. Progressive but well found. 4. Cross The Rubicon has knockout claims.

How to play it: Miss Hellfire to win

1. Rajnish got buried away on the fence at Randwick two weeks ago over 1200m behind Bandi's Boy. It was too late by the time he saw daylight. It was also his third run in a row staying at 1200m. The four-year-old was formerly trained in Victoria before being transferred to Cameron Crockett. He won out to the mile in Melbourne. That was from in front too. Like the set up on Saturday. Should be able to work across to be prominent in the run from the middle draw out to 1400m now fifth up. His win prior to last start was strong at Coonamble in a deep race, holding off Impact Star. Even like the form reference through Seguso second up with Seguso only beaten three lengths on Saturday in the Barn Dance behind I've Bean Tryin'.

Dangers: 2. The Dramatist comes through that same Bandi's Boy Highway Handicap. He had the flashing light having come from near last to rattle home into fourth. He was only first up there. Out to 1400m suits now. The knock is his racing pattern and the gate does him no favours again. 12. Call Me Louis covered ground last start at Rosehill in a Highway behind Chase My Crown. He was brave to stick on to be beaten 3L given the run he endured. Five weeks between runs. 10. Bandasha continued the hot run of Highway winners for Dunn and Rawiller in the past week. The barrier is horrendous for this improving three-year-old though. 17. Extra Smart backs up after running a narrow second to Tribeca Star last Saturday. Want to trust that form line. 11. Monte Outlander has knockout claims.

How to play it: Rajnish to win

2. Poseidon Ruler had no luck at all first up at his home track Newcastle. The six-year-old was wedged in between runners and never saw daylight. He should have been in the finish alongside Salisano, who has since won in Saturday company. That's a race that has produced three subsequent winners and a fourth in the Four Pillars. It's proven to be a hot little BM68. Poseidon Ruler has always been a talented horse, he can just be his own worst enemy when it comes to getting a long way back. Saturday's assignment sets up well second up three weeks between runs from the middle draw. His four runs in Midway company last preparation were excellent. The early price makes him a tempting gamble. None of these will be matching him late, he just has to get the first half of the race right.

Dangers: 12. Shadows Of Love had no excuses last start having presented like the winner at Kensington second up. Should peak now third up and it was third up last campaign that she beat Olentia home, before being relegated to second on protest. Perhaps better on soft and heavy ground, that's the little niggle. 1. Flying Destiny didn't get clear in Midway company two starts ago when a $4 chance. That was behind Peace Officer. The BM72 he ran in subsequently had more depth than the field he meets here. Maps nicely. 3. Byron is no stranger to running well in Midways himself. He's 33 weeks between runs but has trialled up well ahead of his return. Will make his own luck. The draw looks tricky for 5. Vindication. 8. Bowery Breeze the knockout.

How to play it: Poseidon Ruler each way

There are a couple of red flags when it comes to 5. Dalchini. One win from 21 starts and her SP profile having started no shorter than $41 in her three runs back. However, if the five-year-old is ever going to knock off a Group race it's on Saturday. The story of her career so far has been that she is so often the eye-catcher, the sectional star, without converting those runs into wins. There's only seven runners on Saturday so that shouldn't be an excuse here. She clashed with 1. Royal Merchant and 4. Call Di in the Nivison second up and was by far the superior run of the trio. She clocked the fastest last 600m in the race to get into third behind Magic Time and Parisal. Granted, Royal Merchant did carry 59kg. A wide gate then proved costly in the Invitation. Again she was fast home. Have to be with her at the price.

Dangers: Call Di had no luck when third in the Tristarc three weeks ago at Caulfield. She should have won. Finds Nash Rawiller again and she's versatile in terms of where she can settle. That looks significant given the tactical battle this race promises. Royal Merchant is the best placed horse in the field at the set weights being a Group One winner. She was only second up in the Invitation so is perhaps the one with the most improvement coming through that. 2. Roots has shown no early speed at all in her two runs back. That has saw her settle in impossible positions. The small field suits here and the blinkers go on for the first time. 7. Russian Conquest gets another suitable dry track but is racing out of her grade.

How to play it: Dalchini to win

1. Shangri La Express produced the standout two-year-old performance of the season in NSW on debut in the Kirkham. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained colt crossed to lead over 1000m before charging clear. Had to be impressed by the way he ran right through the line. That says 1100m holds absolutely no fears. There is some substance to this son of Alabama Express. The wide gate presents a challenge on Saturday, otherwise it'd be an easy case to make that he'd go straight to the front and make it two from two to start his career. It mightn't be as straight forward as that now with his race likely to be won or lost in the first couple of hundred metres. You don't want to be posted wide over the 1100m at Rosehill navigating two sharp turns.

Dangers: 11. Miss Judas ran second to Shangri La Express on debut. If the favourite does get posted and underperforms, she should be there to pounce. Well set up out to 1100m now given her pedigree. The big plus for 12. Art's Alive is how well she maps from barrier 1. She used that same gate on debut at Warwick Farm. She was very new in the straight but held down second behind smart winner Sovereign Hill. Not sure how to assess 4. Scampi. He jumped favourite, albeit an easing one, in the Breeders Plate before pulling up slow to recover. His trial since was sensational when ridden quietly. 2. Rue De Royale was well beaten on debut at Moonee Valley but that form reference behind Bold Bastille looks strong. 7. Gram has trialled well and is a full brother to Zulfiqar.

How to play it: Shangri La Express to win

3. Antino has his first try behind the mile in the Five Diamonds but the way he has attacked the line in the past suggests 1800m will be no problem whatsoever. His pedigree also suggests as much. Tony Gollan looks to have found the perfect race for the star Queenslander against his own age group. The son of Redwood just missed in the Group One Toorak two starts ago, with Attrition getting a narrow verdict. It was the well documented the hard luck story he had to tell after the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley. Even so, splitting Prowess and Tuvalu, who ran second to Alligator Blood the start prior at WFA, reads exceptionally well for this. He always profiled like the horse to beat heading into this race with the missing piece of the puzzle the barrier draw. Barrier 2. Lovely.

Dangers: 4. Hoo Ya Mal matched it with Montefilia at Rosehill over 1900m two starts back in the Hill Stakes. That prompted a run in the Caulfield Cup where he jumped a $10 chance. The brutal tempo up front set it up for the closers. That race of course produced the subsequent dominant winner of the Melbourne Cup. Three weeks between runs helps him freshen up. 2. Palmetto's win in the Five Diamonds Prelude was better than the narrow margin suggests. He rode a fast pace. The backmarkers were flattered. He again maps to get the run of the race. 12. Unspoken is still on the up this campaign, chasing four straight. This is harder again but hard to knock the form he is in and out to 1800m looks perfect now fourth up. 7. Democracy Manifest and 11. Detonator Jack ran well in the Diamonds Prelude.

How to play it: Antino to win

2. Atmosphere just wasn't sharp enough staying at 1200m second up two weeks ago at Randwick. He was left flatfooted before grinding to the line late to be beaten less than a length despite never really looking likely. Saturday's set up appeals more. Out to 1400m third up with Nash Rawiller booked. There isn't a lot of speed engaged either. Expect Nash to be positive early, maybe even lead. Look at the depth of this gelding's form last campaign. Hawaii Five Oh, Kovalica, Razeta. Just to name a few. Third up last campaign over 1400m he ran second in the Hawkesbury Guineas, albeit beaten comfortably by Hawaii Oh Five. Just have to trust the son of Lonhro to bounce back to his best form but he looks to be trending the right way.

Dangers: 6. Mars Mission was suited by the race shape at Rosehill last Saturday but he sprinted quickly to put two lengths on his rivals late. It was dominant. On the quick back up out to 1400m looks to suit. Unlikely to have this run at the same tempo early but barrier 1 offsets that, ensuring he can park up closer in the run. Should get the back of Atmosphere. 1. Gringotts overcame an unsuitably slow tempo last start to beat Russian Conquest. The win was better than the narrow margin suggests. He faces a similar task again here though, and the barrier likely sees him out the back early. 5. Felix Majestic started hard in the market through that same Gringotts race but was flat. A return to Rosehill could spark improvement.

How to play it: Atmosphere to win

3. With Your Blessing was no match for Dashing Legend first up at Randwick but there's no shame in that. He settled in behind the speed over 1100m and stuck on well to run third. Three weeks between runs second up out to 1200m look perfect now. It was an encouraging return from the lightly-raced, and very consistent, five-year-old. On the strength of that showing, he looks to have returned as well as ever. In his only two previous runs over the Rosehill 1200m he ran second to Kalino and fourth in the Pago Pago as a two-year-old, having come from well back in the field. Josh Parr sticks on Saturday and should get his chance to stalk the favourite into the straight. No excuses from there. Looks to be four or five genuine winning hopes and he's the biggest price.

Dangers: 10. Gustosisimo returned a gelding this time back and hasn't it made a difference! The three-year-old has been dominant first and second up. In both wins not only has the opposition been inferior but he has also been gifted control from in front. He won't get that here with 8. Wizard Of Oz keeping him honest. Huge upside and drops to 52kg but that's reflected in his price. 5. Contemporary kept finding the line through the same race as With Your Blessing. He was also first up which lays a good platform for him to improve off out to 1200m. Finds Nash Rawiller. 4. Plundering has only missed top three once in his nine career starts. Maps well, has trialled well and could improve again into just his third racing campaign.

How to play it: With Your Blessing to win