Widodo's departure precipitates Indonesian election with huge ramifications

Despite his immense popularity he will stand down in accordance with the constitution that only allows for a president to remain in office for two terms which, in Indonesia's case, is a total of 10 years.

Jokowi came to office with the backing of the popular and powerful PDI-P party led by Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of the former president Sukarno and also, and most notably, with a huge backing from tech-savvy relawan voters - young non-aligned volunteers who believed in their presidential candidate.

This election will see Indonesia's strongman and current Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto stand for the third time in his bid to lead Indonesia. Prabowo is the former son-in-law of Indonesia's autocratic president Soeharto and was linked to abductions and murder of numerous activists during the collapse of the Soeharto regime in 1998.

He was also blacklisted in both Australia and the USA despite never being charged with any offences. After losing the presidential prize for the second time in 2019 Prabowo was invited into the ministry by Jokowi to become Indonesia's Defence Minister - a role he has handled with careful dignity and skill.

Prabowo's ambition of being the third-time lucky president appeared unlikely with the PDI-P announcing their preferred nominee for the upcoming presidential election would be the current governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo - a smart, likeable and considered leader who would also appeal to Western countries including Australia and the US.

With the very popular Jokowi as the incumbent in the palace, and his strong links to the powerful PDI-P party, Ganjar has been seen as the likely presidential winner by defeating not only Prabowo but also the third candidate, Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta.

But nothing can be assumed in Indonesian politics, and the desire for Jokowi to see his current policies - including massive infrastructure developments - continue, and importantly create his own family dynasty with his family playing a critical future role in national politics, was about to turn the presidential race on its head.

Late last month, Indonesia's Constitutional Court sensationally overruled a (somewhat silly) law that prohibited individuals under 40 from contesting presidential elections, allowing Jokowi's son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, to pursue his desire to continue in his father's footsteps in top-level political life.

Even more problematic is that the chief justice of the court, Anwar Usman, happened to be the brother-in-law of President Jokowi - a very convenient connection, according to his opponents. Prabowo then announced Gibran would be his vice-presidential running mate in February 2024 and would also be endorsed by Gibran's father, Jokowi. This has left Jokowi's party, the PDI-P and the powerful Megawati infuriated at what they see as a serious act of disloyalty.

What is unclear is whether Jokowi's followers will reject the family dynasty plan by their outgoing president - who still has an 80 per cent approval rating - and direct their votes to Ganjar Pranowo and the PDI-P, or will they maintain their loyalty to Jokowi and support the Prabowo-Gibran team?

Last week's most recent poll suggests the decision by Jokowi to subsequently throw his high-court relative under a bus by firing him has resonated with voters who not only continue to prefer Prabowo as Indonesia's next president, but actually are increasing their support for the Prabowo-Gibran team.

Notwithstanding these latest polls, the truth is no one really knows how this disturbing yet intriguing story will play out, given the many twists and turns of Indonesian politics, but if the Indonesian people do choose Prabowo to become president of this huge emerging nation, the landscape of the region will certainly change given Indonesia is located on Australia's doorstep, likely to become the world's fourth largest economy by 2040 and is already a very powerful regional player; a country that geographically sits directly between Australia and China.

A Prabowo presidency would, of course be welcomed by Australia, but such a result would leave the Albanese government somewhat unsure as to the future of Indonesia's democracy and foreign relations. Prabowo can be charming, engaging and speaks excellent English. He also understands Western culture and would likely seek to be accepted in diplomatic circles as an international statesman. But domestically, Prabowo is well known for his strong autocratic style and fierce temper when agitated.

Australia needs a supportive and compliant Indonesia on a range of regional and world security issues that will demand we give Indonesia more than the usual just warm words in order to maintain and build capacity within what is currently a warm bilateral relationship.