For Australia, the reality is, AUKUS is an illusion. To date, our sole contribution to the agreement has been to provide billions of dollars into the US and UK defence coffers whilst our own national security readiness slowly sinks.
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The reality for the US, is they get $554 billion Australian dollars for providing three to five "second-hand" Virginia-class submarines sometime in the next decade. However, the President of the United States could renege on the deal if certain "conditions" aren't met.
The US also gets an additional $3.1 billion from the Aussie taxpayer for "training-related equipment" tied to AUKUS's pillar two. This is in addition to the $4.5 billion AUD we're already giving the US to expand its shipyards so they can "spruce up" the second-hand submarines they might send to us.
The reality for the Brits - they'll get a cut in all that Australian money too. Plus, the UK's ship-building industry gets Australian dollars for designing and developing the new submarine - the SSN-AUKUS, which we're supposed to get in thirty-five years - maybe.
A disturbing reality is that in this increasingly hostile world, in an already hostile Indo-Pacific region - China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea - the axis of dictatorships, have ousted any notion that peaceful competition will play itself out in a globalised economic framework and Canberra must accept these realities.
As such, for Australia and our regional partners, waiting for the US to finally "pivot to Asia" is really more of an illusion than a reality.
So, to improve the realities of deterrence, we should join Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines in permanently stationing US forces in Australia. For too long Australian governments have used the rotational presence of US Marines as a stopgap to avoid making hard choices. If AUKUS and the QUAD are to survive as coalition realities - deterrence and collective territorial defence in the region must be the focus - a shared focus with shared expenses.
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A sobering reality is the government must invest in strengthening the ADF now because our AUKUS mates, specifically the US, is having tremendous difficulties in staffing, equipping, and maintaining its force. In 2023, the US Army missed its recruiting target by 25 per cent and its weapons stockpiles are severely diminished. The US Air Force also missed its recruitment needs by 11 per cent and its daily operational readiness rate for fighters and bombers hovers at 60 per cent.
The US Navy failed to meet its recruitment goals too, and its ability to deploy carrier strike groups with full crews and operational aircraft is a challenge. Plus, as we have heard repeatedly, the US's capacity to build submarines, carriers, and destroyers for its own fleet, let alone submarines for Australia, is significantly hampered by supply chain issues, cost overruns, and programs not meeting full operational standards.
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Australia needs to move beyond its mercurial assertions about AUKUS "defending the rules-based order" and communicate to the Australian public what are the realities. We need to stop talking about "great power competition" and have a frank conversation with our citizens about what deterring and defending in this conflict between democracies and dictatorships actually looks like.
Why? Because the reality is - within a flash - Taiwan could easily become the next Ukraine or Gaza and there will be no time to compensate for ADF recruitment deficiencies, force structure limitations or to stockpile weapons and ammunition.
Russia is at war with Ukraine. Iran is fighting proxy wars in Israel, Syria, and Yemen. The Indo-Pacific is smouldering and ready to ignite and Australia is not prepared.
These are the realities - it's not an illusion.
- John Powers served as the senior defence intelligence officer in the US Embassy, Canberra from 2013-2017. He is a member of the RSL's Defence and National Security Committee, Canberra.
