The reason why cost-of-living relief cannot come now

Even just a tiny share of the windfall, like a brief suspension of the fuel tax excise, could help ease the strain that families are under.

But, politically tempting though it would be for the government to provide even a little extra relief, experienced economists like Chris Richardson advise heavily against it.

It is a cruelty of the situation the country is currently in that anything that increases the amount of money in the pockets of consumers, even for just a short while, will drag out the fight against inflation.

Even shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, who has been highly critical of the government's handling of the economy, is not calling for more handouts.

The country has made significant progress taming price pressures this year. Late last year the headline consumer price index was growing at an annual rate of almost 8 per cent. If that had been sustained, the cost of everything would, on average, have doubled within a decade.

Instead, as global supply chains have recovered and higher interest rates have bitten into demand, price growth has come down, dropping to 4.9 per cent in October.

But the rate of progress is slowing.

In its latest forecasts released on Wednesday, the government reckons inflation will still be rising at 3.75 per cent in the middle of next year. This is significantly higher than was expected in forecasts issued seven months ago.

The change reflects concerns expressed by Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock and others that inflation is now more domestically driven than it was a year ago.

And, because much of the price pressures are coming from services, which are more labour-intensive to produce and have lower productivity than goods, they will prove to be more stubborn.

And, as Dr Chalmers warned on Wednesday, the global environment remains volatile and uncertain. A shock like a severe financial crisis in China's property sector could send things spinning in an unwelcome direction.

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Ms Bullock has shown a clear determination to bring inflation down, so the slower arc of decline sketched out by the government suggests interest rates will stay high for quite some time yet. Markets have not fully priced in a cut before November next year.

That means many more months of struggle for those with high mortgage repayments or rents.

Nevertheless, there are reasons to think 2024 may be a better year.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers reckons that early next year the pace of wages will begin to outstrip inflation, delivering welcome real pay gains for the first time in years.

And if the migrant intake slows as the government intends, the pressure on housing should gradually ease, making the battle to find and pay for a roof over the head just the little bit less stressful.