We have all become too familiar with the narrative of increasing road fatalities in recent years.
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In 2023, we saw 1266 lives tragically lost to road crashes. For the first time in more than 50 years, Australia's road toll has risen for three consecutive years: a 2.6 per cent increase in 2021, followed by more than 6 per cent in both 2022 and 2023. While year-to-year fluctuations are common, this sustained upward trend is unprecedented and concerning. Are we losing our grip on road safety?
In the mid-1970s, more than 3500 people were killed annually on Australian roads, with the country's population at just half of what it is today. Through significant investments in research, infrastructure, policy, legislation, law enforcement, and cultivating a culture of road safety, we've managed to reduce fatalities to roughly a third, even as our population has doubled.
This remarkable decrease in road deaths is a noteworthy accomplishment, often overlooked when discussing road trauma statistics.
Our ambitions don't stop there. We've set a lofty goal: zero road deaths by 2050. Rooted in the belief that no life lost to road accidents is acceptable, this target reflects our commitment to road safety. Yet, recent figures are casting doubt on our ability to meet this objective within the proposed timeframe.
We often benchmark our progress against other developed nations. Take the United States, for example. Rewinding to the mid-1970s, the risk of road death per 100,000 people was comparable between Australia (27 deaths) and the US (21 deaths). However, our trajectory in reducing these numbers has been steadier and had more impact. The road death risk is about five per 100,000 in Australia nowadays, compared to around 12 in the US.
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), Australia is now faring much better globally in road safety. Numerous factors contribute to this, but one stands out: of the five major road safety laws (drink-driving, speed, helmets, seatbelts, and child seats), the US doesn't meet WHO's criteria for "good" policy in any category, whereas Australia meets four out of five. Our progressive road safety policies have placed us in a strong position internationally.
However, there's a catch. After implementing numerous effective measures, further improvements become increasingly challenging. Economists refer to this as the law of diminishing returns: the better you perform, the harder it is to enhance further. This suggests that achieving zero road deaths, particularly in a system still dominated by human drivers, might be an unattainable goal.
Yet, this doesn't excuse any regression in numbers. Why are they worsening, and what's changed?
Numerous theories attempt to explain this worrying trend. It's crucial to differentiate between significant and minor contributing factors. For instance, some argue that post-pandemic shifts from public transport to private car usage have increased road deaths. However, even when normalising fatalities against the number of registered vehicles, we still see an uptick. Thus, increased car ownership alone doesn't fully explain the rise.
Another theory points to the growing prevalence of SUVs, which pose a greater risk to pedestrians in crashes. While it's undeniable that SUVs are more lethal in pedestrian accidents, accounting for only about 14 per cent of total fatalities, they can't be the sole cause. Besides, it's impractical to expect people to give up their SUVs, which offer better protection for drivers and passengers.
![Drivers attitudes go a long way to reducing road fatalities. Picture Shutterstock Drivers attitudes go a long way to reducing road fatalities. Picture Shutterstock](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/rJkJNFPcdBkDQKqtkgHSjA/ead1212e-c450-4302-a8a5-df9a78d96d05.jpg/r0_269_5257_3236_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Then there's the concept of risk compensation, suggesting that safer cars and roads might inadvertently encourage riskier driving behaviours. This idea is plausible, supported by evidence that people adjust their risk tolerance based on perceived safety levels. A notable example is Sweden's 1960s switch from left to right-hand driving, resulting in an immediate decline in road deaths and insurance claims in the following year, attributed to increased driver caution. While evidence for this theory isn't universal, it's a factor that can't be dismissed outright.
Regardless of the role of risk compensation, indicators suggest a growing propensity for risky behaviour among road users in certain areas. Issues like drink-driving may be stable, but we're seeing an uptick in speeding, as well as in the number of deaths associated with unlicensed driving, helmetless cycling or motorcycling, and drug-impaired driving.
If deteriorating road user behaviour is a key issue, then that's where our focus should lie. No amount of infrastructure investment can offset a systemic increase in risky behaviour. Most instances of risky driving don't result in fatal crashes or legal consequences, so our road toll statistics only reflect a fraction of these occurrences. Rather than waiting for yearly statistics to highlight issues, shouldn't we proactively monitor road user behaviour, similar to how political parties constantly evaluate the political atmosphere? Just as political parties don't rely solely on election outcomes to understand the political landscape, we shouldn't depend only on annual statistics to inform us about road safety trends.
A comparable strategy is essential for road safety: conducting frequent, nationwide surveys to evaluate road user attitudes and behaviours. Typically, respondents are surprisingly honest in anonymous surveys, even habitual lawbreakers. This would enable us to identify which behavioural aspects are declining and among which demographic groups, vital for developing targeted and effective interventions. Establishing a standardised survey, perhaps conducted quarterly, could help us track and respond to shifts in road safety attitudes, a cost-effective strategy in the grand scheme of road safety investments.
While ambitious and aspirational road safety targets are commendable, we should prioritise reversing the current rise in fatalities and setting them back on a downward trajectory. This immediate and realistic goal is the most urgent task at hand, more so than speculating about achieving zero deaths by 2050.
Correction: An earlier version of this article contained the wrong number of people killed on roads annually in the mid-1970s.
- Milad Haghani is a senior lecturer at UNSW Sydney, specialising in public safety.