Trainer Paul Murray isn't too concerned whether Bega Cup winner Winning Point finds herself in the Big Dance or the Little Dance in the spring because he knows he has something to aim at.
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The mare's strong victory in the Sapphire Coast feature earned her eligibility for the $3 million race on November 5 but Murray's job is only half done if he wants to tackle the big one.
While there's plenty of time up his sleeve, Murray hopes Winning Point can take another step toward the Big Dance in the Agency Real Estate Handicap (1550m) at Kensington on Wednesday.
"Now she's won that race we're in the Big Dance or Little Dance, we've mapped out the program for her,'' he said.
"We've got to be smart to work back from November 5 to get her rating up and into the big race."
The field for the Big Dance is comprised of the winners of a series of eligible races across NSW, plus two Wild Card places, but its ballot order is done by the ratings of eligible horses.
Based on the two editions so far, a city rating in the 70s would be a minimum to ensure you're in the top 20 and racing for the $3 million. Winning Point sits on 68 so Murray is aware there's still work to do.
But she's assured of a start in the $750,000 Little Dance if things don't quite go to plan in the next eight months or so.
"I wanted to give her another run or two, and this one popped up so we'll have a crack at that and then I'll decide if she has one more after that,'' Murray said.
"I'm leaning to three to four runs into the Big Dance. So we have a bit of leeway to get a win or so to keep the rating up."
The Kembla Grange trainer said there was no fluke in the Bega Cup victory, pointing to the four-year-old's eye-catching Moruya Cup performance a month earlier.
"I thought she could win but not as dominantly as she did,'' he said.
"The Moruya run was sensational, on a bog track and 1400m is not quite her distance. She was last at the turn, last at the 200m, and runs seventh beaten five. I don't know how they didn't see it.
"I thought the mile would suit her a lot better and it did and now we're in the Big Dance or the Little Dance at the end of the year."
Winning Point, $8.50 with TAB on Tuesday, has six rivals at Kensington so jockey Jean Van Overmeire won't need to bank on nearly as much luck as he did at the Sapphire Coast.
Murray believes, even though the mare has won up to 2300m, a mile is her peak distance and the strength of the Bega Cup win suggests a Randwick mile will be right up her alley.
"Just the way she did it in record time, she went to the line with her ears pricked,'' he said.
"We'll know a lot more after Wednesday even though it's only 1550m.
"I just leave it to Jean because he knows her better than anyone. He'll do his homework and we work in with what he wants to do."
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday's Kensington meeting.
Selections based on a good track.
Race 1 - 2:20PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP (1550 METRES)
1. Dimaggio is tracking to put in a peak performance shortly as he was quite strong through the line in a Midway second-up at Rosehill. Specked in betting there and ran up to it. Imagine he pushes forward in the small field and should be in the finish.
Dangers: 5. Winning Point was strong at the finish winning the Bega Cup over the mile. Still lightly raced so there's upside to her and from a soft draw in a smaller field she has to be considered. 7. Mistress won well at Wyong three starts back but last couple have been below par. Thought she had her chance at Canterbury last time but if she strikes her best she's a good chance. 2. Sweysive has been a $15 chance in his two runs back and held his ground fairly in both. Unbeaten at this track which is a plus and his last win was over this distance back in August. Stays under notice.
How to play it: Dimaggio WIN.
Race 2 - 2:55PM PRAGUE YEARLINGS SELLING NOW PLATE (1100 METRES)
6. Chateau Miraval is another Waterhouse/Bott youngster and she's trialled strongly in the lead up to her debut with two Warwick Farm trial wins in January. She'll be right on the pace and likely the one to run down.
Dangers: 7. Diamond Firetail is a well bred Godolphin filly and there was a lot to like about her latest trial at Warwick Farm where she brushed to the line nicely. Keep her safe. 9. Elegant Artist made a promising debut with a close second to Rag Queen at Canterbury and that form has held up well through the Inglis Millennium. Draws well and if she runs up to that she's a big chance. 1. Deputize was solid in betting but didn't show a lot of pace before working home to a midfield finish behind Switzerland at Randwick. Runner-up has won since so it looks a strong race. Can improve.
How to play it: Chateau Miraval WIN; Trifecta 6/1,7,9/1,7,9.
Race 3 - 3:30PM RANVET HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
4. Trieze looks well placed now she's had a run around this trip since a setback earlier in this prep. Led and was run down in a Midway at Rosehill last time but did fight on well and could get some control od this race. Promising and chance to go one better.
Dangers: 6. Waikato Girl went for a break after a strong maiden win at Rosehill back in November. Fitter for two trials and drawn quite well in the small field. Class rise for her but she's a big threat. 3. Byron Belle has some ability but has been a bit hit and miss to date. She does react well fresh and her latest trial was a bit promising. Keep safe. 2. Centrestone wasn't beaten far when placed over 1550m here two weeks ago though had her chance at the same time. Perhaps coming back a touch in trip is in her favour and is worth another look.
How to play it: Trieze WIN; Trifecta 4/2,3,6/2,3,6.
Race 4 - 4:05PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. Xidaki is hard to go past though he hasn't quite been able to put one away just yet. Placed in all four starts and did show a heap of fight when challenged here two weeks ago, going down narrowly. Good set up here from a perfect draw and this is his chance.
Dangers: 9. Overview was a huge drifter in betting when resuming at Canterbury, more than doubling her price, but she ran a game race on speed to hold down second. Fitter for that and she's likely an improver. Keep in mind. 4. Autumnation was widely expected to win as a $1.40 favourite at Canterbury in the same race as Overview but didn't fire at all after appearing to have her chance. Barrier may see a negative ride, which could be a plus or a minus. Have to give another chance. 3. Superstitious has been handy in two runs back for placings at Canterbury and if he has any luck from the draw can be right in the finish again.
How to play it: Xidaki WIN; Trifecta 1/ 3,4,9/3,4,9.
Race 5 - 4:40PM GHAIYYATH FIRST YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
8. Fleet Commander has been a beaten favourite at his past two starts but does get the blinkers on here so have to stay on his side. Wary he's had a few chances but perhaps this distance range is his sweet spot and he can run well.
Dangers: 3. Naval Seal loomed up but didn't go on with it when runner-up to Roma Avenue over this course two weeks ago. He's been a little disappointing but this prep has put in a couple of nice runs so he's not without a chance. 5. Commander Bell stays under notice after beating Fleet Commander at Canterbury almost a month ago. Made a mid-race move there and kept going. Won two of his last three so worth including. 7. Loving Cilla ran on well off a two month break at Rosehill then small drifter and boxed on okay for a placing at Newcastle. Needs a dry track and she's in the conversation if she gets one.
How to play it: Fleet Commander WIN.
Race 6 - 5:15PM VINERY YEARLINGS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
7. Balkans looked good winning his first two starts last prep then thrown into stakes racing and not quite up to it though wasn't beaten far in two attempts in the spring. Gelded and has trialled nicely, he should take plenty of stopping first-up.
Dangers: 8. Tellez enjoyed a nice run and converted it with an easy maiden win at Warwick Farm on Australia Day. Back in trip again but drawn to get that same sort of run behind what could be a generous tempo so a repeat could be on the cards. 9. Confess Our Dreams won twice at the Newcastle 900m back in the spring in a promising start to her career. She's also trialled well, that draw could be problematic but have to include her in the chances. 4. Secret Revolution raced consistently last time in and returned with a popular Canberra win. Had plenty of support last time at Warwick Farm and disappointed behind Shezanalister. Inclined to forgive that a little and no surprise if he bounces back to form.
How to play it: Balkans WIN; Trifecta 7/4,8,9/4,8,9.
Race 7 - 5:50PM HYLAND RACE COLOURS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
13. Smart Legend was confidently supported first-up two weeks ago but couldn't go with the winner when the sprint went on. Fitter for that given he was off one trial and getting to 1400m is a plus for him, similar sort of race and he's entitled to another chance with a favourable scenario.
Dangers: 10. Kangaroo Court shapes as a big improver on his first-up effort at Warwick Farm where he was in the market but just battled to a midfield finish. Trialled again since and with the wide gate he'll likely look to cross onto the speed. Keep safe. 3. Fistsoffury was stakes placed behind Riff Rocket before a spell in Melbourne and he trialled okay behind a handy one at Rosehill just over a week ago. Has a handy record and any support would be significant. 7. Sir Artie showed a nice dash to score a very easy win at Gosford a couple of weeks ago and deserves a shot at this. Each-way claims. Also keep in mind 9. Cut On A Dame first-up as a gelding and 12. Growl who has trialled well for the new stable.
How to play it: Smart Legend WIN.
