It's highly unlikely Australia's potential adversaries are quaking in their boots following the latest plan to futureproof the RAN's troubled surface fleet.
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While the prospect of six new Hunter class frigates, six new Arafura class patrol boats, six "optionally uncrewed" mystery strike vessels (aka "missile barges") and major upgrades to three Hobart class destroyers sounds great on paper, real wars aren't fought in Russell Offices.
Given the Australian defence establishment has repeatedly shown it is a world leader in over-promising and under-delivering, taxpayers should be sceptical about how many of these projects will come to fruition and, even if they do, if they will meet expectations.
This is, after all, the procurement regime that delivered landing craft that wouldn't fit on the ships they were designed for and a Blackhawk replacement deemed such a failure it was retired early with examples being stripped for parts before the airframes are consigned to landfill. The list goes on and on.
Under the plan announced by Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles and Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, the rejigged naval development program isn't due for completion until the late 2040s. That's two decades from now.
Given President Xi Jinping is just shy of 71, the RAN should have a good handle on what his intentions were towards Taiwan by then.
Given the timeframe, the strategic uncertainty in the region, and that the plan calls for the fleet to get a lot smaller before it starts getting bigger, it is hard to summon up much enthusiasm for it; particularly given nobody can definitively say why the RAN didn't send a ship to the Red Sea to protect commercial shipping. Was it because it couldn't or because the government didn't want to? Inquiring minds would like to know.
The problems that have plagued defence procurement for decades are just a part of widespread malaise that has wasted tens of billions of dollars, led to a real-time reduction in war fighting capacity and brought ADF morale to dangerous lows.
It is regularly reported all the services have major recruitment problems. A recurrent question about the nuclear submarines is whether or not the navy will be able to crew them given it can't attract, train, and retain the submariners it needs for its already depleted Collins fleet.
While record low unemployment might account for some of the shortfall there are other blatantly obvious reasons young Australians aren't putting their hands up for a career in the services.
A revolving door of scandals ranging from sexual misconduct at ADFA, a very poor record on the treatment of women, and the misconduct exposed by the Brereton inquiry have all played a part.
Last week's revelation by Chief of Defence General Angus Campbell he had signed off on Fijian Colonel Ben Naliva as the deputy commander of the army's 7th Brigade despite allegations the man had tortured a political opponent having been in the public domain since 2011 was the icing on cake. General Campbell told Senate estimates he "wasn't aware" of the allegations.
It is most unfortunate, given the vast majority of men and women who have worn the Australian uniform have served with honour and distinction, the ADF has suffered such significant reputational damage under its current and recent leadership.
The upshot has been a loss of confidence in defence at all levels that does not bode well. As Peter Jennings recently observed: "the ADF has never had more money spent on it and seldom been less ready for conflict".
Announcements are one thing. This government has to deliver some tangible results.
