Our new navy fleet's a sensible change of course

Its impetus was chiefly from concerns about the utility, cost and schedule of both the Hunter class frigates and Arafura class offshore patrol vessels.

This is an important announcement, for while there has been much focus in recent years on the planned AUKUS nuclear powered submarine program, the surface combatant force is the backbone of the fleet and carries out the bulk of the navy's missions.

The public report proposes the re-shaped surface navy would consist of:

The government has also accepted the independent analysis's recommendations to have 25 minor war vessels to contribute to civil maritime security operations, which includes six offshore patrol vessels.

There is a recognition that border protection is better served by more patrol boats rather than fewer larger offshore patrol vessels. Recent arrivals of refugees on the WA coast would seem to validate this thinking.

The key changes are reducing the Hunters and Arafuras to six apiece, and introducing a more compact frigate class as well as the uncrewed strike vessels. To make all this work, the Osborne shipyard in South Australia will look after the submarines and Tier 1 ships, and the Henderson facility in WA will build and maintain the Tier 2 ships.

Time is a critical factor. Not only because of the strategic situation and the delays with the Hunter class, but also the hard-worked Anzac class are ageing rapidly. Anzac will now pay off and the class life extension will not go ahead.

To buy time, the successful bidder for the new frigates will build the first few in their home shipyards until Henderson develops the capacity. The overseas contenders are from Spain, Germany, Japan and South Korea.

An expeditious down-select will be critical. Equally important will be ensuring the locally-produced and world-class CEA radar suite is part of the ship fit.

Overall, this is a well-thought-out plan. But it is important to recognise why Australia, in part, got itself into a situation where a "reset" was needed.

If for the current frigate program, variants of the Hobart class were produced, instead of a completely new untested Hunter design with less missile capacity, such a dramatic course change would have been unnecessary.

Australia's shipbuilding industry has shown with the Anzacs and the Hobarts it can produce well-built and cost-effective ships, as long as you give it a reasonable number to refine the building process.

Ideally do not have selected designs from too many countries, it is a needless complication. This future fleet will take decades to deliver and it will be vital for successive governments to stay the course on the broad plan. It will also be important to encourage and support Australian industry in their efforts in delivering and sustaining the future fleet.

This new fleet is of course bigger, and there are valid strategic reasons why. Notably, it may require nearly a third more people to go to sea than in today's surface fleet.

Defence recruiting is in a crisis, with new officers and sailors far fewer than what is needed. Much hangs on the current Defence recruiting remediation efforts. It will also require new thinking about how to crew our ships.

Let us hope all concerned are up for the challenge. In these uncertain times, they must succeed.