Andrew Barr, by now, should know a thing or two about budgets. This afternoon, the longest-serving ACT Chief Minister will hand down his 13th.
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But whether it will be Mr Barr's unlucky last is in the hands of Canberra voters, who will be able to cast their judgement at the ballot box on October 19.
Australian economic conditions have deteriorated. The national accounts figures, released earlier this month, showed the rate of growth had ground almost to a halt. Inflation has not been comprehensively tamed, but its effect is being felt unevenly.
The Chief Minister agreed in the lead up to the budget that the dual, interconnecting problem of cost-of-living support and high inflation was a thorny issue for governments to manage.
Difficult economic circumstances give Australia's current longest-serving Treasurer the chance to show why Canberrans should reward experience. It's up to Mr Barr to take up this opportunity.
Mr Barr's economic agenda is well established after years at the table where the most important fiscal decisions in the ACT are made.
What the government needs to demonstrate with Tuesday's budget is that another four-year term would be an energetic, reform-minded and big-thinking period.
Parties do not fare well when they are steeped in power for long periods of time. That kind of exposure tends to make them go off. It is up to the public to determine when a government is too far beyond its use-by date.
The ACT government has been in power for longer than some newly eligible voters have been alive. It will be up to them to demonstrate why they should be granted more time in office.
Constrained economic conditions mean it is unlikely the budget will outline programs that amount to vote buying. Most of the pre-budget announcements have been in expected areas: health and education, chief among them.
The government has also been eager to tend to sore spots. A trial to insource public housing maintenance demonstrates the government knows it is vulnerable to community campaigns.
Funding for a rapid response team for footpath repairs demonstrates the government knows it's the basics in the city that often matter most. Any attempts at a big social reform agenda will be defeated before they begin if the government does not meet the high expectations Canberrans rightly have for the national capital.
Political wisdom suggests budgets early in parliamentary terms make tough decisions, cut spending and refocus the agenda. Pre-election budgets are then supposed to be laden with goodies, sweeteners and incentives.
Mr Barr's 13th budget may well take a different course, seeking to make a case for experience, prudence and what the government hopes Canberrans will agree is good economic sense.
The release of the territory's budget will also mean others touting their credentials at the ACT election will no longer have any excuses about releasing policies and getting into detail.
A clearer picture of the territory's finances and Mr Barr's vision for four more years will emerge from 5pm in the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday evening.
Whatever happens, the budget will set the scene for the last 116 days of the campaign.
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