There is an ACT election in a little more than 100 days. But you wouldn't know it from Andrew Barr's budget.
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Navigating a significantly narrowed economic path, Mr Barr has delivered a budget that trims a little here and adds a little there.
Cost-of-living assistance is finely targeted. Savings are targeted: no jobs will go but the amount spent on travel, printing and consulting will be wound back.
New revenue streams - including more payroll tax to be collected from big multinational companies and a levy on short-term rental accommodation - will not add megabucks to the territory budget, but they will contribute significantly to the very slender surplus of $79.7 million forecast, no doubt with good intentions, for 2026-27.
It is a budget that has been designed with subtle tweaks in mind rather than dramatic course corrections. This is hardly a surprise from a government that has been afforded the time by voters the chance to govern for the long term.
Debt does continue to rise. The debt, excluding the long-term superannuation liability, will be more than $8.8 billion in 2024-25, and soar beyond $12.4 billion by the end of the forward estimates in 2027-28.
Mr Barr's reference, in his annual budget press conference, to the "comprehensive" consultation with the community was telling. He knows the community expects the budget to invest, whether it's in health, education and infrastructure.
Debt and deficits are not the political Achilles' heel in the ACT the opposition hopes them to be.
"I've got to respond to the economic circumstances that our jurisdiction faces and the needs of this community. So the point of the budget is to meet the needs of the community. You do so within obvious fiscal constraints," Mr Barr said.
The Chief Minister took aim at the Liberals: "If Elizabeth Lee's argument is that we should be slashing jobs and slashing public services starting from 1 July next week in order to meet some ideological surplus target, I would reject that."
However, there were still no big shiny announcements. The infrastructure agenda is pretty much full, Mr Barr keeps saying. The Chief Minister is effectively asking the community to judge his government on its updated infrastructure plan, ruling out big sugar-hit election announcements.
This is a political vulnerability, as would be any perception in the community that taxes and costs grow but government services stagnate or get worse.
![Chief Minister Andrew Barr with his budget on Tuesday. Picture by Elesa Kurtz Chief Minister Andrew Barr with his budget on Tuesday. Picture by Elesa Kurtz](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/35sFyBanpD896MKnAH5FRtj/3034700c-a895-483d-8b7d-b0bda92fac9a.jpg/r0_292_8203_4904_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
There will be no big handouts. The cost-of-living package included in the budget, which offers $250 payments to apprentices, concession card expansions and targeted rent relief, is economic keyhole surgery intended to offer help without boosting inflation or delaying a return to a balanced budget.
Mr Barr's budget is the latest in the running offer to the public. Labor's take on the best of both worlds, with investments now in stuff the city needs and a path towards balanced budgets in the future. No razor gang required.
GET ACROSS THE WHOLE BUDGET:
The budget, overall, is a restrained affair. This will intensely frustrate the ACT Greens, who govern in coalition with Labor, and whose preferred agenda includes higher levels of public spending.
The Canberra Liberals will declare the levels of public debt are extreme and unsustainable, while also declaring the cost-of-living support does not go far enough. They open themselves up to attack on grounds of inconsistency. They struggle to shake the obvious question: "So, what will you cut then?"
In the lead up to October 19, Mr Barr, who has been Chief Minister longer than anyone, will be caught in the middle. He finds some comfort there.
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